The Leaf Blog: 5 or 6 Rookies, But Where Will They Fit?
It wasn’t something that just slipped out of Ron Wilson’s mouth. No, because he made a point of repeating several times, that is, his intention to ice five or six rookies for the Maple Leafs this season.
Rookie goaltender Jonas “Don’t Call Me Monster” Gustavsson is a lock to make the squad, but you get the sense that Wilson wasn’t referring to the goaltending position when he promised a younger team.
Based on the Leafs’ lack of high-end talent up front, the notion of a rookie-infused lineup sounds viable. But even a quick glance at the Leafs roster indicates that there will be stiff competition for jobs.
As it stands now, The Leafs have 12 forwards with veteran status, and 13 if you include Jiri Tlusty (who has actually played 72 games for Toronto, albeit in a limited role). It appears that for rookies to be worked into the lineup, some vets will find homes in the press box, or be riding the bus with Ben Ondrus & co.
Of course, there are bound to be a couple of moves prior to October first, as always, but the roster won’t change drastically.
You can separate the current Leaf vets into two categories. We’ll call them the Locks and the Unlocks:
The Locks
1. Jason Blake: Led Toronto in scoring, and would have amassed over 70 points had linemate Dominic Moore been retained.
2. Niklas Hagman: At times he was the best Leaf last season. 22 goals in an injury-shortened 65-game season.
3. Mikhail Grabovski: Though he disappeared for a stretch early in the new year, showed top-6 skill and displayed some feistiness.
4. Alexei Ponikarovsky: Bloomed into Poni 2.0 after the departure of his Kazak roommate Nik Antropov.
5. Nikolai Kulemin: Not quite the season fans expected, but Kulemin steadily improved throughout the year, showing promise that he can further adapt to the North American game.
6. Colton Orr: May be a healthy scratch on occasion, but he was brought in by Brian Burke expressly to occupy a spot on the fourth line and provide some fisticuffs.
7. Matt Stajan: Not fooling anyone with his 55-point season, but 50+ points can’t be ignored. Would be easy to trade, with a cap friendly salary and RFA status upcoming.
The Unlocks
1. Lee Stempniak: Played well below expectations, but shows promise. Hard to envision him in better than a third-line role on a contending Leaf team. To complicate matters, Ron Wilson recently cited Stempniak as the most improved player so far at camp.
2. John Mitchell: Burke and Wilson love the makeup of his game, but he still must earn his spot after a solid rookie year, vying for a spot at an over-crowded centre ice position.
3. Jamal Mayers: Not worth the 3rd round pick Cliff Fletcher traded him for, though Jamal was a necessary acquisition last year for a young team.
4. Rickard Wallin: A player with leadership experience in Farjestad and a couple of full seasons in the AHL, Rickard will be valued as a penalty-killer and bottom-6 forward.
5. Wayne Primeau: Like Wallin, excels killing penalties and brings toughness to the forward core.
With seven slots accounted for, and the other five surrounded by prowling veterans, the rookies will need to impress in their exhibition games.
So which young forwards are most likely to nab the spots? Here’s our 8 most likely candidates:
1. Jiri Tlusty: Yes, we know Tlusty isn’t a rookie, but the 21-year-old has played only 14 games for Ron Wilson, in which he failed to notch a single goal. After a demotion to the American League last season, Tlusty was allowed to stay with the Marlies and develop a comfort level with linemates Tim Stapleton and Bates Battaglia. Though listed as a Centre, Tlusty spent the bulk of his time at left wing and found success at the position. He broke out last year scoring 25 goals and 66 points in 66 games. Season highlights included a 5-goal performance and being named AHL player of the month in February, posting 23 points in 11 games in that span. In the past five years, 20-year-olds who score a point-per-game or more in the AHL have been select few, and Tlusty is part of that group. Only 10 players have accomplished this feat, and this list includes Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Eric Staal, and David Krejci. Tlusty has physically matured and his confidence has grown enormously. Look for him to make the Leafs and occupy one of the top two left wing positions by the All-Star break.
2. Tyler Bozak: After a bidding war broke out for Bozak last year, he settled on the Leafs and there has been hype building around him ever since. In an injury-shortened season with Denver last year, Bozak scored 23 points in 19 games. Good numbers, but a full season’s worth of production wouldn’t have quite landed Bozak among the top-10 point producers in college hockey. The consensus is that he is NHL-ready, playing a skill game and showing tenacity in the scoring areas. His chance to make the Leafs is heightened because of his reputation, and the fact that he is among the more mature prospects at 23. By the looks of it, he is skilled and hard-working enough to stick at the pro level.
3. Viktor Stalberg: 6′3”, 210 pounds, oozing with raw skill and was arguably the fastest skater in college hockey last season. He accelerates to top speed quickly and possesses above-average agility for a man his size. Stalberg was a Hobey Baker finalist last season, and tied for fifth in the NCAA in goals, scoring 24. Some time in the AHL would benefit him, as it would allow him to play a top-6 role immediately. He played two playoff games with the Marlies last season, and he looked like a standout. Marlies head coach Dallas Eakins is very high on Stalberg, but he acknowledges that some of the chances Viktor took in a purely offensive role with Denver may have to be adjusted playing the pro game.
4. Christian Hanson: There is less of an offensive upside for Hanson, but he still has potential to be a very good third liner. At 6′3”, 225, he has the physical attributes of a Burke-type NHLer. Christian has actually put on an additional 20 pounds of muscle this off-season. What Leaf fans saw of Hanson last season wasn’t a large enough sample to fairly judge him at the NHL level, but there were indications that he will be a solid contributor as he matures. Some seasoning in the American League to open the season might be best for his development. Hanson recently scored a hat trick in a rookie tournament game vs. Pittsburgh, so perhaps his offensive prowess will soon take flight.
5. Nazem Kadri: Brian Burke has said that he believes Nazem isn’t yet strong enough to compete in the NHL. Burke has also made it clear that he would welcome a Luke Schenn-type situation in which Kadri makes the decision to send him back to junior a difficult one. Kadri will likely spend the season in London, having the opportunity to dominate, polish his offensive skills, and become a more well-rounded player. Though he has already shown Mike Richards-type tendencies on the PK (leading the OHL with 10 shorthanded points), there is room to improve on finer defensive aspects of his game. Additionally, a chance to compete in the pressure-filled World Junior tournament is a leadership opportunity that Kadri would profit from. A pre-season injury to one of Matt Stajan or Mikhail Grabovski would make an NHL stint more likely for Kadri, as he will only be retained if he earns a top-6 role. Even still, the Leafs may be tempted to test Kadri in NHL action before sending him to the OHL.
6. Robert Slaney: The 20-year-old took major strides last year, scoring 81 points with the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, after tallying 55 points in his previous year. Having gone undrafted, Slaney has improved each year of his junior career, from an 05-06 point total of 7 to last year’s 81. He hasn’t looked sluggish in his rookie camp games, but will likely need a couple of standout performances in the pre-season to be considered for a roster spot.
7. Mikhail Stefanovich: This 6′2” Belarussian centre has the tools to be a star in the NHL. At 19, he has already filled out to over 200 pounds. Last year, Stefanovich led the Quebec Remparts in scoring with 49 goals and 76 points in 56 games. His impressive goal tally placed him 3rd in the Q. Attitude-wise, he made great strides under coach Patrick Roy. Dallas Eakins cited Mikhail’s lack of tenacity and compete level as a concern for him early in the year. Dallas also said that by season’s end, Stefanovich’s attitude-shift greatly impacted his overall game because of his more consistent work ethic. He will be only 20 this season, so a full season in the Marlies should be expected. However, he could crack the Leafs lineup later in the season if he continues to mature.
What about on Defense?
Carl Gunnarsson: 6′2”, 189, shoots left and plays a steady, defense-first game. The type of player who quietly goes about his business and doesn’t attract much attention. He has the potential to be an above average 3rd pairing defenseman, possibly a defensive-minded second pairing d-man. His steadily improving play has actually garnered him an invite to Swedish Olympic camp. Although Sweden’s camp roster includes 26 defensemen, Gunnarsson is one of only four without NHL experience. He too will get major minutes for the Marlies this season, and will look for a call-up opportunity if the Leafs run into (a mass of) injury troubles during the regular season.
Phil Oreskovic: Plays with jam and earned some ice time last season on the big club. But again, Toronto’s tremendous depth on defense makes the odds of a call up slimmer for the 6′3”, 217 pound Oreskovic. Phil has previously earned a reputation in the OHL as a premier hitter and for his above-average defensive prowess. He was well-liked by Wilson and Burke last year, enjoying a mildly successful 10-game stint with the Leafs. Oreskovic and Gunnarsson could one day make a formidable shutdown pairing for the Leafs. They will be near the top of the Marlies depth chart and given every chance to develop, but a substantial NHL stint is at this point highly unlikely.
If Wilson Is True To His Word
Of course, Ron Wilson could very well insert each rookie one at a time in short stints throughout the year, but what might the lineup look like if 5 or 6 rookies suit up against Montreal on October 1st?
Ponikarovsky – Grabovski – Kulemin
Tlusty – Stajan – Hagman
Stalberg – Bozak – Blake
Orr – Hanson – Slaney
By this version of the lineup, the top line that finished strong last season remains together. Jiri Tlusty lines up with veterans Stajan and Hagman, while the college kids Stalberg and Bozak are grouped together with Blake. With the crowded back-end already threatening the jobs of competent vets Ian White and Jeff Finger, there is no room to even consider a rookie defenseman for a spot. This version of the lineup includes only four true rookies, and it’s not likely that Slaney will make the team to compete as a fourth liner.
Just as there are countless lineup possibilities for October 1st, there are still other variables at play. Will Brian Burke actually demote 3 or 4 proven vets to the American League or the press box? How will injuries affect the opening night lineup? What about the possible addition of RFA Phil Kessel?
Brian Burke has stated plainly that he thinks competition for jobs is healthy for an organization, but it is also possible that this roster has too many components.
Ron Wilson has iced some very young teams in San Jose, which resulted in several winning seasons. He has shown the ability to integrate youth successfully, but this time around, he’ll have a lot more juggling to do in the process.
Our heads are spinning already.
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Pension Plan Puppets on Wed, 16th Sep 2009 1:21 pm
Nice post although I think that lineup might be the Leafs' at some point during the season but I think that we'll see the waiver eligible forwards start with the Marlies while Burke tries to shift guys out rather than just bury them in the minors.
Also, Wilson said his fouth line was going to be Orr-Primeau-Mayers
hockeycentric on Wed, 16th Sep 2009 1:40 pm
Thanks,
Hopefully Mayers doesn't occupy a spot for too long. As you said, if they can phase out some of the vets, the Leafs will be better off. Burke did also say that he'd demote vets to the A without hesitation. Is he bluffing?
Mike Pelyk's Hairdo on Wed, 16th Sep 2009 2:34 pm
Enter text right here!Nice well thought out piece. I was impressed with both Hanson (as a 3rd liner) and Oreskovic in late season action last year. Oreskovic definitely rides the Marlies bus for a year or two but could be a mean sunmabitch solid D man in a year or two. I don't know what happened to Mayers … private skating lessons from Jason Allison?? He used to be a useful player with decent speed. All he is doing now is slowing other players' development and taking salary.
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Burke doesn't bluff. Not in Vancouver or Anaheim. I'm interested to see if they give Tlusty a decent chance again. He wasn't ready when they put him on the first line with Sundin. I'm not a fan of Kessel's….he reminds me of Rob Shremp when he was in junior. Cocky, and honestly, I don't get a team vibe off of him. No more injured players please…………..
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