Optimist/Pessimist Debate: Toronto’s Offensive Saviour
Leaf fans of opposite attitudes duke it out below…
Pessimist: So… have you looked at the upcoming free agent crop lately?
Optimist: Despite my attitudes, I will be the first to admit there are very few forwards on that list that should be of interest to Brian Burke. But there are still a few.
Pessimist: Face it, Kessel will have to shoulder the offense for another full season. Who is Brian Burke going to sign, Colby Armstrong? Yeah, his 11 goals will really take the heat off. Colby Armstrong has become a poor man’s Colby Armstrong. I bet Leaf fans feel stupid for actually not wanting the Sedins last year.
Optimist: To be completely honest, I do think Burke will sign Colby Armstrong. Coming off a sub-par statistical season I bet he’ll be a cheap sign, and a perfect fit on the third line next year. Maybe most importantly, an energy player with experience. Go ahead and laugh.
Pessimist: I am laughing. You can keep looking over the list of UFAs until your eyes bleed but you won’t find any hidden gems.
Optimist: Burke might also have his eye on Tomas Plekanec. 60+ points this year, pretty useful player. What about Alexander Frolov?
Pessimist: Plekanec??? Brian Burke won’t invest in another tiny and soft top-6 forward. Frolov is horribly inconsistent and constantly involved in trade rumours. There is something about him that Los Angeles doesn’t like, and I don’t think we want to find out what it is.
Optimist: Signing Frolov to a 3-year deal wouldn’t hurt the Leafs. Size is there — he’s 6′2″, 215, and he plays the left side. He hasn’t hit 20 goals this year but he scored 35 a few seasons ago.
Pessimist: Yeah, I’m aware that he scored 35 goals. THE SAME YEAR THAT JASON BLAKE SCORED 40! Why do people fall in love with a player for one season’s worth of production? Don’t tell me that Frolov could rescue the Leafs or even come close. I’d rather have Niklas Hagman.
Optimist: No one (not even me) is expecting Frolov or any comparable player to “rescue” the Leafs. The point is, Burke has to sign players on July 1st. He has to and he will. Think of it as acquiring assets while expending only cash. You sign Frolov, Armstrong, whoever — sign them to 2 or 3-year deals and consider them trading assets a year or so later. Oh, and I really do believe we have a shot at signing Patrick Marleau, despite his well-publicized relationship with Ron Wilson.
Pessimist: First of all, there is no chance that Patrick Marleau comes to Toronto. Secondly, there is no chance Patrick Marleau comes to Toronto. (Why would you leave a well-insolated Cup contender in sunny California to be scrutinized in Toronto, where you’ll be expected to immediately lift your team into contention???)
Optimist: Fair enough, but Canadian-born players appreciate the history of the Maple Leafs and would jump at the chance to play in Toronto. Don’t underestimate Burke.
Pessimist: Maybe you shouldn’t overestimate Burke. He had to overpay to attract Komisarek, and Beauchemin wasn’t a hot commodity either. The college free agents signed because of opportunity. You think they wouldn’t have rather signed with Washington or Chicago?
Optimist: While you go off on your tangent I’ll just stare at the OHL scoring leaders page — more specifically Nazem Kadri’s 93 points and 105 PIMs in 56 games. He’s at least one reliable weapon coming up through the ranks. This guy was barely behind the pace of Hall and Seguin, so I’m sure he can step onto the Leafs and make some noise next year. It’s exciting to have another player in Kessel’s talent echelon.
Pessimist: I watched Kadri play as an emergency call-up. You shouldn’t be excited. Lazier than Kessel, more prone to turnovers than… well, Kessel. Those two will never successfully play together unless their left-winger is a super-human puck digger.
Optimist: You’re really not giving Kadri enough credit. You can’t judge a player who is thrown into NHL action having not even a practice or time to prepare himself mentally. He’s undersized now but Burke has told him to get stronger. You also severely underestimate his defensive abilities. Granted, he does look to be stationary at times, but he works smart before he works hard.
Pessimist: Why do you think Phil Kessel has had relative success with Bozak and Kulemin? Answer: because they do all of the digging and Kessel is free to be his lazy self. It’s a big problem when your so-called “saviour” Nazem Kadri can’t play alongside your only other scoring threat. Don’t you find that disturbing?
Optimist: Have you seen Kessel play a single shift with Kadri? No, you haven’t. No one has. By the way, think about Kessel’s line last year in Boston with Lucic and Savard. No one will ever call Marc Savard a two-way dynamo, but he and Kessel clicked, thanks in part to Lucic’s diligent work ethic. Kadri and Kessel just need a left winger with the equivalent work ethic of Nikolai Kulemin. Oh wait… we have a player with Kulemin’s work ethic named Nikolai Kulemin…!
Pessimist: If Kadri does anything next year, it will be south of 50 points. Just admit that it will be at least one more pitiful season before the top-6 is respectable.
Optimist: Never.
BCapp on Sun, 14th Mar 2010 3:27 pm
They are both more realists with pessimistic and optimistic slants…
We won't sign many UFAs this summer. 3-4 roster players max. We'll keep some cap flexibility and let the young guys further develop.
Our D is established.
Phaneuf Beauch
Kaberle Komi
Gunny Schenn
Finger
Even if we trade Kaberle I have to assume that one of Mikus/Orescovich/Aulie can take his place as a #7.
In regards to forwards the following are clearly in there:
Top 6: Kessel, Bozak, Kuleimin, Grabs
Bottom Six: Sjostrom, Orr, Lundmark (probably)
Mitchell will probably be resigned cheap and Hanson has earned his place in the bottom 6 (IMHO). I expect Stalberg to also make the team though that is not a guarantee.
Thats a total of 10 players with 5 bottom 6ers, 4 top 6ers and Stalberg. We still have Caputi/Rosehill fighting for their roster spots this year and a lot of other guys coming through the roster to the pros next year (Kadri/Stefanovich/Dido/D Mitchell) so they will also fight for roster spots.
Look for him to sign more prospects in the near future (college/overager CHLers/Europeans). Then in the summer he'll sign character forwards (a la Armstrong maybe), probably a cheap bottom 6er, maybe a veteran presence for upfront (whose cheap and past his prime as a 1-2 year fill in, like Lang in Phoenix). And maybe 1 legitimate top 6 forward. I have no doubt he'll take a shot at Marleau, but I don't think it'll happen. With Marleau having a career year he's going to want BIG money and probably a life time contract. For a guy who is as inconsistent year-year as Marleau I would not want to see that.
Himmy Jayes on Sun, 14th Mar 2010 6:19 pm
1. Singning 3-4 roster players isn't many but it sure isn't few. We'll sign another D if Kabby goes
2. I watched a few London games and saw how much better developed kadri is now as opposed to training camp. I think he will have a top six spot. Wilson won't waste him like he sometiems wastes Stalberg on the fourth line.
3. Both you and the author forgot to mention Raffy Torres, who everyone thinks will be coming to toronto. It makes sense becuase of his energy and ability to score. He might be the best UFA fit of anyone out there.
4. Finger will be in the minors next year mark my words. The last d will be one of the youngsters you mentioned.
Himmy Jayes on Sun, 14th Mar 2010 6:22 pm
I also kinda have a feeling that Kadr and Kessel won't end up being linemates. They will be equally as dangerous and splitting them up will be good for balance once the other 4 top six fwds are in place.
Marleau would be the best UFA signing and best Leaf since #93. He was better than his linemates in Vancouver and he really works hard every shift. Burke. Please get him. Please!
P. Wells on Sun, 14th Mar 2010 10:47 pm
I agree with almost everything the Pessimist says. Maybe it should be called Disillusioned/Informed next time. Sadly, there's more of the latter in Leaf Nation. Nice post.
BCapp on Sun, 14th Mar 2010 7:43 pm
I really hope we DON'T sign Marleau. It was only TWO years ago that he had 48 points. He is wildly inconsistent and I really don't find that he makes others around him better. He plays great when he is with Thornton (on both SJ last year and this year (but not two years ago) and they olympics), but I don't want him for what he will cost. Coming off of a 47 or so goal season (if he continues on this pace) with 90 or so points, he's gonna want either 3 or 4 years at 7 mil, or a lifetime contract at like 5 that takes him to 38 or 39. He is NOT worth that.
Besides this team isn't ready to invest that kind of money into a FA. Wait until our players develop a little more…
In regards to Torres, I'd love it, as long as it was for reasonable money. I wasn't thinking of all the forwards that would fit on the leafs, but he is definitely someone. As long as it was at a reasonable price. He is a great energy 4-9 forward, with good hands.
In regards to Kadri, he'll be treated more like Bozak was this year, then Stalberg. In other words he'll be kept playing top 6 minutes in the AHL, until he can play top 6 minutes in the NHL. I've watched some Knights games too, and I like what I saw, but he REALLY needs to put on another 10-15 lbs. Guys are a lot bigger in the pros and he'll be pushed around at his size.
Finally in regards to Finger, I don't think Burke will put him in the minors. He'll either buy him out, or keep him at #6/7. Burke seems honourable like that. Finger has played fine. He's as good as any 6/7 D-man in the league. He is just not 3.5 million good. Thats not Finger's fault. He got offered that contract and took it. Fletcher was an idiot. Burke will not bury the man in the minors, because he doesn't think it'd be fair to Finger, who plays his heart out every shift (just like they didn't bury Blake). My money is on buying him out or moving hell and high waters to trade him.
disillusionedBud on Tue, 16th Mar 2010 4:42 pm
Marleau, Kovalchuk, Frolov, Torres, Plecanech, Demitra, Armstrong…. Pick two or three, plus Kadri, I don't see how they won't make the playoffs.
BCapp on Tue, 16th Mar 2010 4:51 pm
DisillusionedBud:
Can't do that in a cap world. It would be impossible to sign more than 2 (and only ONE could be Marleau/Kovalchuk/Plecanec).
In addition to that, Marleau/Kovy are probably going to want to go to contenders.
Frolov is a streaky player who has had complaints that he doesn't give it all consistently (think kovalev). I am not sure if Burke would go for that (though ppl have made the same complaints about Kessel).
Above and beyond all that, we still have questionable goalies. We have a good prospect in Gustavvson who still may NOT pan out and Giggy who is still a ? if he can bounce back.
Finally Kadri is still a PROSPECT. He may NOT pan out. Just like Hall or Seguin may not pan out (as we keep telling ourselves here in Leaf land), Kadri too may be the next Daigle.
For someone calling themselves disillusioned you seem kinda illusioned…
beLEAFer on Fri, 26th Mar 2010 5:34 pm
Kadri is a "prospect"?
He was just voted the best stick handler in the OHL by the coaches
He leads the OHL in playoff scoring (10 points in 4 games)
He had 94 points in the regular season, which is top 4 in the league.
If he's a prospect, then what do you call Tavares and Stamkos?
Watch out for Kadri Kessel Kulemin (the KKK line haha)
As for goaltending, The Monster has 6 wins in a row and is looking better and better every game.
BCapp on Fri, 26th Mar 2010 6:38 pm
beLEAFer,
Your optimism is nice, but what you described is completely a prospect. He has done nothing (productive) in the NHL. Tavares would have been a prospect last year, and Stamkos two years ago. Now they no longer are.
In regards to Kadri's numbers, at the same age, Luca Caputi had MORE goals and MORE points than Kadri. Now Caputi looks like he is developing nicely, but he is without a doubt a prospect.
Finally, I see no reason to take Bozak off of a line that is producing well over a goal/game…
Cheers
BCapp on Fri, 26th Mar 2010 6:42 pm
If you are curious about Caputi's numbers he had 51G and 111 pts in 66 GP, as a 1st year overager. Kadri had 35 G and 93 pts in 56 GP.
As well, while he had a great year, he did not reach Wilson's/Burke's (admittedly extremely difficult) goal of 100 pts.
Kyle on Tue, 30th Mar 2010 8:23 pm
Give the kids a few years. Get Finger's cap # off the books. They aren't winning any titles next year but they are improving. Call me the realist.