Instant Analysis: Kovalchuk, Grab Your Pitchfork
For the rest of this season at least, the New Jersey Devils will ice two of the three best left-wingers in the game, while the Thrashers throw in the towel and acquire some useful pieces in exchange for an expiring contract.
The Trade
To New Jersey: LW Ilya Kovalchuk, D Anssi Salmela
To Atlanta: D Johnny Oduya, RW Nicklas Bergfors, C Patrice Cormier, 1st Round Pick (2010)
From New Jersey’s Standpoint
The New Jersey Devils now have the most talented group of forwards in the Eastern Conference. When your second best left-winger is Zach Parise, your roster is scary. In Kovalchuk, the Devils acquire a player that belongs to the small handful of mega-talented players who will one day define their generation. Consider the boost Marian Hossa provided to Pittsburgh’s playoff run two seasons ago, and the fact that Kovalchuk is in a league above Hossa.
The Devils play a highly structured game with an emphasis on defense, but don’t expect Kovalchuk’s production to be adversely affected by New Jersey’s system. Kovalchuk is on pace for 48 goals, and will take over the Devils’ team lead in scoring, one point ahead of Zach Parise in six less games played. The Devils are 11th in powerplay efficiency, a mark which should improve with Kovalchuk manning the left point.
The Devils were an elite team prior to this deal, while scoring 2.54 goals-per-game (21st in the league). Needless to say, Kovalchuk’s goal output should drive this number up, making the Devils just as threatening offensively as they are defensively.
Oh, and the Devils got Anssi Salmela in the deal as well. Salmela will fill the roster spot vacated by Johnny Oduya. The 25-year-old Salmela is a serviceable third-pairing defender with 55 games of NHL experience.
The Devils lose a skilled puck mover in Oduya, but Kovalchuk’s presence more than compensates for that loss. Paul Martin’s eventual return from injury will return the puck moving presence to the back end.
The loss of Niclas Bergfors may upset Devils fans the most, but it won’t be remotely felt as long as Kovalchuk is on the roster. If he signs elsewhere on July first, Devils fans should remember that David Clarkson is on the mend and could potentially fill a top-6 role.
The Devils continue to have one of the better prospect cupboards in the NHL, even after surrendering Cormier, Bergfors and their first rounder in 2010. Up front they still have Mattias Tedenby and Jacob Josefson — two potential top flight fowards — as well as Matt Halischuk, Adam Henrique and Nick Palmieri.
From Atlanta’s Standpoint
Because the Atlanta Thrashers knew full well in making this deal that Ilya Kovalchuk would not re-sign, they succeeded by acquiring a few assets with an eye to the future instead of losing their star for nothing. Atlanta should become significantly worse with this deal, as the removal of a 50-goal scorer and offensive focal point creates an incredible void up front. The Thrashers now have Nik Antropov to call their premiere forward. Everyone’s production will suffer from Kovalchuk’s departure.
In the short term, Johnny Oduya will have the biggest impact on the Thrashers. Oduya, 28, remains under contract for another two seasons at 3.5 million per. He has only four points this year, but scored 29 and 26 in previous seasons. Although Atlanta loses one of the best players in the game, their defense core improves with the deal, and should only get better as future Norris trophy candidate Zach Bogosian continues to mature surrounded by a stable crop of defensemen.
Niclas Bergfors has enjoyed a productive rookie season as a 22-year-old, but is scoreless in his last 13 games leading up to the trade. He may become a dependable top-6 forward, but his upside isn’t clear at this point. For the moment, his production will be critical for the Thrashers, who now must lean heavily on Antropov, White, Peverley, Brian Little and Slava Kozlov for offense. Now missing any bonafide top-line talents, Bergfors must find a way to chip in.
Patrice Cormier should become a 2nd line player at best and a third-liner at worst. He plays with a well-publicized edge, which coaches and General Managers value tremendously from energy players.
The acquisition of a first round pick is an absolute must when a player of Kovalchuk’s magnitude changes hands. Atlanta’s overall return is solid in that two current NHLers, a prospect and a high pick make their way to Atlanta.
Final Thoughts
The Marian Hossa trade seemed balanced at the time, but because few of Atlanta’s acquisitions were proven talents, the hockey history books will indeed show that Don Waddell didn’t get full value for his superstar. This time, Waddell clearly emphasized that his return consisted of known NHL players and not simply prospects or picks. In Oduya and Bergfors, Waddell is assured to immediately add two players to his roster that have chipped in significantly for a winning franchise.
In addition, he gives his scouting staff the chance to land a great player with New Jersey’s first round pick. The pick will likely fall between 22-30, and of course it could take years before the full value of this pick is known. With the addition of Patrice Cormier, Don Waddell adds a prospect who will likely make the NHL and compete as a sound role player, and potentially more. Cormier is public enemy number one in the present day, but look at Todd Bertuzzi, Steve Downie and Sean Avery — hockey is a forgiving sport, so Cormier will be afforded the opportunity to better himself and play professional hockey.
The Thrashers tried their best to keep Kovalchuk, but failed to. The only responsible course of action was to deal the impending UFA because he was walking either way. Atlanta will take a step back, but their organization is rich with prospects and they should develop into a winning organization in the next 2-4 years.
The Devils are now a force in the East. There is no doubt that a change of scenery won’t break Kovalchuk’s habit of scoring often. New Jersey has made a statement to their fans and to the league — anything but the Cup this year will be a supreme disappointment. Kovalchuk won’t stick around past July 1st. Lamoriello is too smart a manager to handcuff his franchise with a 10 million dollar contract. In the mean time, he makes a move that vaults New Jersey into a Cup favourite.
Check out our analysis of the Phaneuf trade and the Jokinen trade, as well as every subsequent deal heading towards the deadline in our Instant Analysis Archive.
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Pffff. Kovalchuk has played FOUR playoff games — all losses. When he was int he playoffs, Atlanta was better than New Jersey is now (Tkachuck, Zhitnik, Hossa, Recchi, White, Kovie). Talk about NO CHANCE for the devils.
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Interesting take on Waddell's standpoint here, by getting two proven players he takes away the possibillty of being looked at as a foolish GM years from now. Oduya is a decent player. The second black Thrasher. Woo. Woo. Woo. Woo.
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