Stretch Drive Indicates Standout NHL Playoff Teams
As NHL teams gear up for the playoffs, you hear a lot of talk about “the stretch drive”, or the last 20 games of the season. Beyond determining playoff and draft seeding, the last chunk of games can also define a team going forward; if a club can’t play well in the last 20 games of the regular season, they probably won’t play 20 playoff games.
Taking a look back at the Conference finalists from the last two seasons, it is clear that the last 20 are crucial. In 2008, the Eastern Conference Finalists were the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Flyers posted a mark of 12-4-4 in their last twenty contests, with the Pens going an impressive 15-2-3. The Pennsylvania state rivals played three games against each other in the last two months of the regular season, but the Flyers were only able to beat the Penguins once. Their playoff series was very similar, with the Pens winning easily in five games.
The 2008 Western Conference Finalists were the Detroit Red Wings and Dallas Stars, the Red Wings posting a 12-6-2 record, and the Stars a relatively lacklustre 9-9-2. The Stars and Wings each won a game against each other at the end of the regular season, but the Wings dominated in the post-season, taking a 3-0 series lead before winning the Western Conference Final in six games.
The 2009 Conference Finalists were similarly dominant in their final twenty regular season games. The Eastern Conference Final featured the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second straight year, and a surging Carolina Hurricanes team. The Hurricanes were on fire at the end of the 2009 regular season, recording four and nine-game winning streaks in their last twenty games. They beat the Islanders 9-0, the Lightning 9-3 and the Flames 6-1, and looked like a team ready for a long playoff run. Eric Staal stunned Martin Brodeur in the final minute of game 7, but when they reached the Eastern Conference Final, they ran out of gas, losing four straight to the eventual Cup Champion Penguins. Pittsburgh was 12-6-2 in the stretch drive, pretty impressive for a team that played until June for two seasons straight.
The Western Conference Finalists were the Detroit Red Wings (again) and the young Chicago Blackhawks. They posted identical 10-7-3 records in the final twenty games. In the final two games of the season, the Blackhawks dominated the Red Wings by scores of 4-2 and 3-0. The story was very different one month later when Detroit’s seasoned playoff veterans spanked the inexperienced Hawks in five games.
So based on the last twenty games, who will be reaching the 2010 Conference Finals? In the East, that would be the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres. Les Habitants have posted an 11-7-2 record over their last twenty games, which translates to a 0.555 winning percentage. The Sabres have posted an identical record, and have beaten and lost to the Canadiens in their last twenty games.
In the West, the best records during the stretch drive belong to the Detroit Red Wings (surprise, surprise) and the Nashville Predators. The Wings are 14-3-3 in their last twenty, while the Predators are 14-5-1. Just behind the Wings and Preds are the Phoenix Coyotes, who are 13-5-2 in their last twenty.
