Choosing Canada’s Olympic Team By The Numbers

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By: The Hockeycentric Team December 9, 2009 94 Comments RSS
Being forced to use an alternate logo resulted in some pretty threads, eh?

In the lead-up to the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, everyone and their mother has a theory of who will make Team Canada. While journalists and beat writers across the hockey world have considered everything from chemistry to a player’s willingness to step up in big games, what this inevitably comes down to is current performance.

We quantify performance with statistics, and often times the numbers tell the story of a player’s season. Consistent and current point producers are exactly the type of players Canada needs, because if they stumble out of the gate, they will have a lot of ground to make up in a three-game round robin. Let’s get to selecting our Team Canada squad based solely on stats, starting with…

Forwards

We’ll start with forwards, selecting the 12 highest scoring Canadians thus far.
As of December 9th, 2009, they are as follows:

l

Goals Assists Points
Joe Thornton 7 33 40
Sidney Crosby 20 17 37
Corey Perry 15 21 36
Ryan Getzlaf 6 29 35
Patrick Marleau 19 14 33
Dany Heatley 19 14 33
Brad Richards 7 26 33
Dustin Penner 16 15 31
Jarome Iginla 17 13 30
Steven Stamkos 17 13 30
Rick Nash 15 15 30
Martin St. Louis 5 25 30

l
Not a bad squad. All twelve of these Canadians are in the top 18 scorers in the NHL right now. Another statistic of note: If Mike Green were a forward (he basically is, isn’t he?), he would still make the team, tied with Iginla, Stamkos, and Nash with 30 points.

The Team Canada brass made it pretty clear in training camp that their intended top line would be Nash-Crosby-Iginla. With they way fellow San Jose Sharks Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau are playing, they could be a deadly second line. The third line would have to be Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Dustin Penner, leaving Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos as line four. If that third line seems oddly familiar, then you may recall Anaheim’s best line in the their 2007 march to the Stanley Cup. Almost every line proposed here has pre-existing chemistry, save the Crosby-Iginla-Nash line, but no one should be worried about those three getting along.

I know what you’re thinking. What about Olympic camp invitees Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, and Eric and Jordan Staal? What about longshots that weren’t invited such as Marc Savard?

This is why a team isn’t chosen based on a sheet of numbers, because every Canadian knows how valuable Mike Richards especially will be to the Canadians. Undoubtedly, there will be some very talented Canadians left off the team. The NHL is comprised of over 50% Canadian talent, and there are only a maximum of 24 spots on the Olympic roster. You could safely put together five different Team Canada squads that would compete for medal contention.

Steve Yzerman has made it pretty clear that he is not just going to load all four lines with offence and expect them to produce. He wants a balanced attack, with checking lines and two-way players throughout. That being said, the easiest way to look at this is from the Brian Burke model, or the ‘Top-6, Bottom-6′ Theory. Your first two lines are filled with talent and scoring, while your bottom two lines provide the grit necessary to wear the other team down. That doesn’t mean that your bottom two lines can’t score goals, but they shouldn’t be relied on for offense.

The reality is, Canada had trouble scoring goals in Torino 2006. They finished a dreadful 7th place and had no players in the top 10 in scoring. In general it was a disaster in comparison with the 2002 showing where Canada won its first gold medal in 50 years. The pressure is much, much higher in Vancouver as the tournament will be played on home turf, and Canada is expected more than ever to deliver. With such a task ahead of them, Canada will need to score early and often. And with four lines of current and previous 100 point scorers, there is no reason for an offensive drought.

Defense

Selecting defenseman for Team Canada gets a little more tricky. Two areas that will need to be running at top speed are the powerplay and penalty kill, both of which have a heavy defensive component. Much the same as the forwards, there will need to be a balance between offensive talent, and gritty defensive play. For starters, here are the top-6 scoring defensemen in the league:

l

Goals Assists Points
Mike Green 5 25 30
Dan Boyle 6 19 25
Duncan Keith 5 18 23
Drew Doughty 7 15 22
Chris Pronger 4 15 19
Stephane Robidas 7 11 18

l
I’m pretty sure no one has predicted these six to be Canada’s starting defensemen in Vancouver. Drew Doughty has played great, but he is certainly not a lock to make the squad. Stephane Robidas was a surprise camp invitee, and it would seem that Canada’s elite defensemen are a step above him. While Keith, Pronger and Boyle are favourites to earn a spot, the absence of Scott Niedermayer, Shea Weber, and Jay Bouwmeester from this list say something about Canada’s depth on defense. Regardless, the D corps will look a lot different from the 2006 version of this team that featured Wade Redden, Adam Foote and Bryan McCabe.

Goaltending

If Steve Yzerman only had to look at statistics to choose his team, his job would be a piece of cake. There is normally a lot to consider when choosing a starting goaltender. As GM of an Olympic team, you certainly have a lot more choices than an NHL general manger. Until very recently, Roberto Luongo was the favourite to start in net for Canada, as his stellar play last season and in the playoffs moved him ahead of incumbent Martin Brodeur. More recently, Marc-Andre Fleury has been gaining momentum as a starter, after leading the Penguins to a Stanley Cup last year. Fleury has not slowed down one bit, putting up stellar numbers this season as well. Based on stats, here are the starting goaltenders:

l

Record SV % GAA SO
Marc-Andre Fleury 17-8-1 .905 2.45 0
Martin Brodeur 18-7-1 .922 2.11 2
Roberto Luongo 12-9-0 .916 2.41 2

l
There you have it. It is highly unlikely that this will be the team that wins it all in Vancouver, but these are the Canadians that are tearing up the NHL this season. We’ll all just have to wait until New Year’s Eve when Stevie-Y makes his highly anticipated announcement.

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    when you use the fact that canada won its "first olympic gold in 50 yrs'.to dramatize your point, you mislead the uneducated into believing that we weren't the strongest hockey nation when in fact we were. We were not allowed to send professional athletes all those years. All our best players were professional and hence never afforded the opportunity to play for olympic glory.Every country has been allowed to ice their best players for the olympics except us…now that the rest of the world has caught up, we're allowed to send our best players, which is a very recent phenomenon. the Edmonton Mercuries were merely the last amateur team from Canada that was still good enough to beat everyone elses best.. Being humble is one thing but don't downplay our greatness please…we have so little.__ Johnny Cleghorn

  4. Johnny Conacher on Tue, 29th Dec 2009 8:19 pm 

    when you write, re. the top 6 bottom 6 theory, that the bottom 6 grit laden lines must supply offence, so must the top 6 supply grit. it's a two way street isn't it? and when has team canada not been the grittiest international team?
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