Buffa-low Chance For Success In Northeast Division

Buffalo Sabres fans should begin to prepare themselves for a frustrating season.

Last year, they finished just two points shy of earning a seven-game series with the Bruins, but the Sabres won’t improve on that finish in 09-10. There are far too many factors working against them this year, as we list below:

The Division Is Stronger…

Unlike last season, there are no longer any gimme games or pushover teams within the greatly improved Northeast:

Montreal – With the pressure of the centennial season no longer a topic of discussion, and an overhauled roster, Montreal has shed themselves of baggage and made themselves a more talented team as well. Adding 45-point defender Jaroslav Spacek and Cup champion Hall Gill, the Habs are deeper and more skilled on defense. The new top line of Cammalleri, Gomez and Gionta are likely to eclipse the production of former top unit of Tanguay, Koivu, and Kovalev. The Habs are well-stocked with youngsters who can make an impact this season, so expect one of the youngsters to make a name for himself. Fresh blood in Montreal will be the key to a successful season.

Boston – After winning the Eastern Conference last season, and the Vezina, Jack Adams, Jennings, and Norris trophies in the process, the Bruins enjoyed a spectacular campaign. Though it will be difficult for the B’s to sustain last year’s excellence, they will fight for the division title, and likely finish between the 1-4 seed in the East.

Toronto – A stripped-to-the-bone season in 08-09 saw Ian White and Luke Schenn average over 20 minutes a night, while emphasis was placed on skill development over implementing a winning strategy. Defense was the weakest point of the 08-09 Buds. A year later, acquisitions of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin, and a healthy Tomas Kaberle give the Leafs one of the league’s 10 best defense cores. The healthy competition at forward and a strengthened goaltending tandem will make the Leafs a more competitive squad in 09-10.

Ottawa – With the Heatley fiasco behind them, Ottawa finds themselves with one of the most well-rounded top-6 forward groups in franchise history. Now that the “Pizza” line is history, expect to see two potent lines, and second line wingers that have the potential to ignite Mike Fisher’s offensive game. On defense, not much has changed for the Sens, but don’t forget that the addition of Chris Campoli helped Ottawa go 14-9-2 after he was acquired via trade on February 20th.

Last season the Ottawa Senators collapsed badly, while Toronto was never expected to challenge for the post-season. In the Northeast this time around though, each of Buffalo’s division mates have legitimate hope to secure a playoff spot.

…And The Sabres Are Weaker

Not only is the talent around them more threatening, but Buffalo’s roster itself doesn’t appear playoff worthy.

Two Key Losses On D:  Spacek and Numminen
Jaroslav Spacek led Buffalo’s defense with 45 points last season. The next best output from a defender was Craig Rivet with 24 points. Spacek has moved on to division rival Montreal. That hurts, considering that the Sabres also lost Teppo Numminen to retirement, a player who possesses a decent offensive abiity and a great deal of leadership. Spacek was at times the only defenseman used on Buffalo’s first powerplay unit, so their strategy will have to be adjusted in that department as well.

No True #1 Defense Pairing
A look around the Eastern Conference and you’ll find that even the poorest squads have a defensive pairing that resembles a #1 unit — But take a quick perusal of Buffalo’s back end. It’s nothing to be proud of.

Tim “Break Like Glass” Connolly As #2 Centre
Tim Connolly is a highly skilled forward, who has the potential to put up 80 points. The problem is and has always been, we continue to use the word potential to describe a player who was drafted in 1999. Being counted on last year for his offense, Connolly was nearly a point-a-game, posting 47 points in 48 games, but he has never played a full, productive season. For the Sabres to on count this year as being the turning point of Connolly’s injury-prone career, their gamble isn’t made without risk.

Ryan Miller Is Not A Hockey Team
Well-informed Sabres faithful would first point to Ryan Miller’s win-loss record of last season. He went 34-18-6 in the 59 games when he was healthy, which would have put the Sabres into the playoffs over a full season. But he didn’t play a full season, and the Buffa-slugs floundered without their star keeper.

Good hockey teams survive goaltending injuries, just as the New Jersey Devils did a year ago.

The Devils, who have made the playoffs each year since 1995-96, were without Marty Brodeur for 51 games last season. Rather than fold it up, the Devils thrived, going 32-18-1 with the scrappy goaltending tandem of Scott Clemmensen and Kevin Weekes.

Of course, the Devils were a top squad in the East last year, and their ability to perform without their #1 keeper exemplified just how well-balanced they are as a squad. The Sabres don’t share such a balance.

There were several playoffs teams in 08-09 who managed to succeed without world-class goaltending — Detroit (Chris Osgood), Washington (Jose Theodore), St. Louis (Chris Mason), Philadelphia (Marty Biron) — And these teams found their way to the playoffs because of strength at all positions.

Any team that rests their hopes solely on a goaltender is putting themselves at risk. Buffalo is in that very situation, needing Miller to be a Vezina candidate night after night to begin thinking about playoffs.

The factors against the Sabres are numerous. In order to have a hope at the playoffs, just about everything will have to go right for the Yellow and Blue, and we don’t think that’s very likely.

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