Superstar playmaker Marc Savard apparently doesn’t fit into the plans of the Boston Bruins, and he’s reportedly agreed to accept a trade involving the Ottawa Senators or Toronto Maple Leafs.

Here is a player the Leafs could really use. As of this moment, their number one centre is Tyler Bozak, a promising talent the team has high hopes for, but one who has only 37 pro games under his belt on which he can be judged.

Savard is a superstar, and one of the best passers in the game. He’s superbly talented. He is a true number one centre. It’s hard to argue against what he brings to the rink.

However, Marc Savard has had concussion problems and carries a contract that expires around his 40th birthday.

So does Brian Burke acquire a proven producer despite the health and contract risks?

The debate has already begun to rage in Maple Leaf circles. There’s plenty of valid points to be made for both sides:

WHY THE LEAFS SHOULD ACQUIRE SAVARD

– Boston has very little trade leverage
The Bruins have initiated the trade talks; teams haven’t been banging on Peter Chiarelli’s door with offers. Any trade partner can negotiate to their advantage based on Savard’s injury history (several concussions), the length of his deal (7 years), as well as the cash owed to the soon-to-be 33-year-old centre (a ton of cash). It’s been speculated that the Leafs wouldn’t have to surrender one of the organization’s more valuable assets to acquire Savard — rather, a couple of prospects or perhaps a lesser defenseman might be enough. A rare opportunity has presented itself in which a front line talent can seemingly be had at an unheard of discount.

– History with Phil Kessel
Not only did Phil Kessel score 36 goals in ‘08-09, but the Bruins were the best team in the East with Savard and Kessel leading the way offensively. Kessel has matured as a player and shown he is a 30-goal man no matter who is by his side. With Savvy in the fold, the question heading into the season would be if Kessel can score 40, not 30.

– Immediately puts the Leafs in playoff contention
Adding an 80-point player improves a team in a hurry. If the post-Toskala Leafs can carry over their renewed enthusiasm from the Spring, the addition of Marc Savard and a couple of mid-level UFAs will have the Leafs in contention for one of the bottom four playoff spots in the East.

– Lessens the value of Boston’s first round pick
Brian Burke maintains that he “hopes Boston gets a good player” out of the Kessel deal, and that he wasn’t terribly disturbed watching a franchise centre picked by a division rival with his team’s former draft pick. Burkie is a great straight-faced liar, and he’ll clearly do all he can to improve the Leafs and ensure that Boston isn’t handed a second premier player in the 2011 draft.

– Savard may retire early
This may sound like a reason to not make the deal, but the ideal scenario for Burke and the Maple Leafs would be for Savard to play a few productive years and then hang ‘em up before he becomes a burden. Savvy’s contract lasts another seven years, but it’s conceivable that he will only play another 3-5 years of that contract. Further, when you take into account Savard’s finesse style, which hinges on intelligence and passing ability more than speed and athleticism, he should be fairly productive for the next four seasons. It would take a tremendous decline in production for Savard to fall short of his cap hit in terms of production.

– Cap hit is reasonable, especially for a star
Considering Brian Burke’s miraculous roster shuffling to get Jason Blake out of Toronto, consider this: Jason Blake’s yearly cap hit is virtually identical to Savard’s. Prior to Blake being dealt, had someone told you that Blake could be off the books in a year replaced by Marc Savard at an equivalent cap number, you would have thrown them to a mob of flesh-hungry Kopitars (zombies).

– The Leafs will have cap space for further shopping
With such a modest cap hit on Savard’s deal, Leafs will have room to make competitive offers in free agency and squeeze more talent into the lineup within the constraints of the salary cap.

WHY THE LEAFS SHOULD NOT ACQUIRE SAVARD

– Risk of long term headache
One more concussion and Savvy could be through with professional hockey. Head injuries can quickly put a stop to once-healthy careers. The Matt Cooke incident was frightening enough to ripple through the league and prompt immediate action/investigation regarding blind side hits to the head. Savard won’t become a more durable human being as he approaches his mid-thirties, so the Leafs might be facing a difficult scenario if he fails to deliver upon being acquired.

– Size up the middle?
Tyler Bozak isn’t a physically imposing fella, nor is top prospect Nazem Kadri. While Kadri does have a physical edge, he lacks the body to accompany it. The Leafs don’t have a big-body centreman, and that’s something Brian Burke mustn’t be content with. He had Getzlaf in Anaheim to compliment the diminutive Andy McDonald, but no such player is close to NHL-ready in the Leaf organization. Is Burke willing to commit to another player who barely cracks six feet?

– Giving up futures and getting older
So far, the re-tooling of the Maple Leafs has emphasized drafting and getting younger along with acquiring NHL-ready talent and improving through trade. If Burke is required to give up a couple of his better prospects in the deal, it might reek of prior Maple Leafs management decisions in which the future was ignored in making deals. Worst case scenario: Savard is a dud in Toronto and the Bruins acquire yet another former Leaf prospect who blossoms into a marquee player.

– The “Rod Brind’Amour” situation
That old camel in Carolina has become a burden to the salary cap and to the organization — as Jim Rutherford attempts to turn the page and rebuild, Brind’Amour apparently takes pleasure in seeing his name in the ‘minus’ column on a nightly basis. He refuses to call it a career. It’s possible that Savard intends to play out the remaining seven years on his deal, even if he’s ineffective in the latter portion of the contract.

– No-trade clause
For the first three years of the deal Savard would be very tough to move. Suppose he isn’t a fit in Toronto, and this becomes evident after the first year of the deal. In such a scenario, Brian Burke would have limited options in shipping Savard elsewhere. However, if Savard’s stance towards being dealt is any indication, he’s the type of player who complies with management if they show no interest in retaining him.

So what’s the right call if you’re Brian Burke? Everyone should have an opinion by now.

Reports have surfaced indicating that Lou Lamoriello has significant interest in acquiring Tomas Kaberle.

Positive for Brian Burke is that the Devils are one of several teams believed to be interested in the 32-year-old Czech blueliner. The bidding war for Kaberle is in full swing, and there will be several solid offers on the table heading into the NHL Entry Draft.

Tomas Kaberle would undoubtedly be a perfect fit in New Jersey. Since the departure of Scott Niedermayer, beginning with the post-lockout season in ‘05-06, the Devils have won their division four of five years, but have advanced only two playoff rounds.

As key defensemen have left the New Jersey Devils’ organization, onlookers are left continually scratching their heads, not able to comprehend how the Devils win so many games with very little star power patrolling their back-end.

But considering the Devils have won two rounds without Niedermayer, it’s no wonder Lamoriello has expressed interest in Kaberle. Come playoff time, the minute-munchers and puck carrying specialists see more ice time and are vital to any team’s playoff success. Especially valuable are defenseman of Tomas Kaberle’s ilk, who possess the ability to skate the puck out of trouble and create offensively.

Unfortunately for New Jersey, they probably don’t have the assets Brian Burke is looking for in return for Kaberle.

Of interest to Burke are first round picks and forwards who can step into the Leafs’ lineup this upcoming season and improve the team. More specifically, a big, young centreman would be ideal.

The Devils don’t own any first round picks in this draft so that immediately lessens the chance for a deal. Having dealt their first round pick to the Thrashers in exchange for Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey’s earliest draft pick in 2010 is slotted for 38th overall.

This pick would be of interest to Burke as a starting point for any deal. He’s said time and again that his desire to acquire picks stems from his respect for his scouting department — he hates the idea of watching them sit idly until the 62nd selection of the draft. You get the feeling he’ll somehow acquire a pick between 10-61 on draft day.

Beyond the lack of a first round pick, only David Clarkson and Travis Zajac would seem to be of interest to Burke from the current Devils roster.

Clarkson could be had, but the 26-year-old Toronto native is a second-liner at best, but more of a third-line talent. His physical style and size are attributes that Brian Burke covets, but his offensive ceiling is very limited. It’s difficult to imagine Clarkson ever topping 50 points, so for a team like Toronto that’s in the market for high end skill, Clarkson and a pick alone wouldn’t be enough to pry away Tomas Kaberle.

Zajac would be a dream pickup for the Leafs. He’s a 6′2″ Canadian centreman who has recently scored 67 points and still has plenty of upside. Unfortunately for Brian Burke, Zajac is New Jersey’s current number one centre and one of the few young components of their aging roster. It’s unlikely that Lamoriello would consider including him in a deal.

However, Brian Burke has been known to execute blockbuster deals, so if Zajac were to be part of a deal, here’s how it would have to be structured:

First, Burke would need to surrender either Nazem Kadri or Tyler Bozak to help ease the blow to New Jersey. Kaberle for Zajac is a lopsided deal in favour of Toronto when you consider age and contract status. That said, for Burke to give up his current number one centre or a future number one centre in addition to Kaberle, he’d expect more coming back from New Jersey. Kaberle and Bozak for Zajac, Clarkson, a top prospect and a couple of draft picks might look fair on paper, assuming Kaberle would be willing to sign a contract extension in New Jersey. Any deal involving Travis Zajac would probably involve a lot of assets changing cities.

Don’t expect a deal of this scope to go down, though. If Lou is interested in centring the deal around a prospect like Mattias Tedenby or Jacob Josefson, his offer will probably fall to deaf ears. Despite the argument that a short-term mindset has plagued the Leafs organization for decades, Burke has repeatedly told the media that he’s not interested in a slow rebuild. He’s looking to re-tool, and to be back in the post season in the Spring of 2011.

The fact that Lou Lamoriello and/or Brian Burke have allowed New Jersey’s interest in Kaberle to become public information creates some intrigue. Does Lou seem like the type who would express interest without a fair package for Burke to mull over? The Devils are a winning franchise because of Lamoriello’s ability as a GM. Perhaps he’ll find a way to make the trade work.

Theories vary on how much Tomas Kaberle is worth on the trade market, but certainly, as the offers pour in, his value continues to rise.

Leaf fans of opposite attitudes duke it out below…

Pessimist: So… have you looked at the upcoming free agent crop lately?

Optimist: Despite my attitudes, I will be the first to admit there are very few forwards on that list that should be of interest to Brian Burke. But there are still a few.

Pessimist: Face it, Kessel will have to shoulder the offense for another full season. Who is Brian Burke going to sign, Colby Armstrong? Yeah, his 11 goals will really take the heat off. Colby Armstrong has become a poor man’s Colby Armstrong. I bet Leaf fans feel stupid for actually not wanting the Sedins last year.

Optimist: To be completely honest, I do think Burke will sign Colby Armstrong. Coming off a sub-par statistical season I bet he’ll be a cheap sign, and a perfect fit on the third line next year. Maybe most importantly, an energy player with experience. Go ahead and laugh.

Pessimist: I am laughing. You can keep looking over the list of UFAs until your eyes bleed but you won’t find any hidden gems.

Optimist: Burke might also have his eye on Tomas Plekanec. 60+ points this year, pretty useful player. What about Alexander Frolov?

Pessimist: Plekanec??? Brian Burke won’t invest in another tiny and soft top-6 forward. Frolov is horribly inconsistent and constantly involved in trade rumours. There is something about him that Los Angeles doesn’t like, and I don’t think we want to find out what it is.

Optimist: Signing Frolov to a 3-year deal wouldn’t hurt the Leafs. Size is there — he’s 6′2″, 215, and he plays the left side. He hasn’t hit 20 goals this year but he scored 35 a few seasons ago.

Pessimist: Yeah, I’m aware that he scored 35 goals. THE SAME YEAR THAT JASON BLAKE SCORED 40! Why do people fall in love with a player for one season’s worth of production? Don’t tell me that Frolov could rescue the Leafs or even come close. I’d rather have Niklas Hagman.

Optimist: No one (not even me) is expecting Frolov or any comparable player to “rescue” the Leafs. The point is, Burke has to sign players on July 1st. He has to and he will. Think of it as acquiring assets while expending only cash. You sign Frolov, Armstrong, whoever — sign them to 2 or 3-year deals and consider them trading assets a year or so later. Oh, and I really do believe we have a shot at signing Patrick Marleau, despite his well-publicized relationship with Ron Wilson.

Pessimist: First of all, there is no chance that Patrick Marleau comes to Toronto. Secondly, there is no chance Patrick Marleau comes to Toronto. (Why would you leave a well-insolated Cup contender in sunny California to be scrutinized in Toronto, where you’ll be expected to immediately lift your team into contention???)

Optimist: Fair enough, but Canadian-born players appreciate the history of the Maple Leafs and would jump at the chance to play in Toronto. Don’t underestimate Burke.

Pessimist: Maybe you shouldn’t overestimate Burke. He had to overpay to attract Komisarek, and Beauchemin wasn’t a hot commodity either. The college free agents signed because of opportunity. You think they wouldn’t have rather signed with Washington or Chicago?

Optimist: While you go off on your tangent I’ll just stare at the OHL scoring leaders page — more specifically Nazem Kadri’s 93 points and 105 PIMs in 56 games. He’s at least one reliable weapon coming up through the ranks. This guy was barely behind the pace of Hall and Seguin, so I’m sure he can step onto the Leafs and make some noise next year. It’s exciting to have another player in Kessel’s talent echelon.

Pessimist: I watched Kadri play as an emergency call-up. You shouldn’t be excited. Lazier than Kessel, more prone to turnovers than… well, Kessel. Those two will never successfully play together unless their left-winger is a super-human puck digger.

Optimist: You’re really not giving Kadri enough credit. You can’t judge a player who is thrown into NHL action having not even a practice or time to prepare himself mentally. He’s undersized now but Burke has told him to get stronger. You also severely underestimate his defensive abilities. Granted, he does look to be stationary at times, but he works smart before he works hard.

Pessimist: Why do you think Phil Kessel has had relative success with Bozak and Kulemin? Answer: because they do all of the digging and Kessel is free to be his lazy self. It’s a big problem when your so-called “saviour” Nazem Kadri can’t play alongside your only other scoring threat. Don’t you find that disturbing?

Optimist: Have you seen Kessel play a single shift with Kadri? No, you haven’t. No one has. By the way, think about Kessel’s line last year in Boston with Lucic and Savard. No one will ever call Marc Savard a two-way dynamo, but he and Kessel clicked, thanks in part to Lucic’s diligent work ethic. Kadri and Kessel just need a left winger with the equivalent work ethic of Nikolai Kulemin. Oh wait… we have a player with Kulemin’s work ethic named Nikolai Kulemin…!

Pessimist: If Kadri does anything next year, it will be south of 50 points. Just admit that it will be at least one more pitiful season before the top-6 is respectable.

Optimist: Never.

You’re Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke, sitting there in your office, staring at a plaqued black and white photograph of George Armstrong hoisting the Stanley Cup, and you realize that your rendition of the Maple Leafs aren’t about to share that glory.

Looking down your roster, you look to identify the sellable assets you have, the one name that sticks out is Tomas Kaberle. This player is one of the five best offensive rearguards in the NHL, and everyone knows it. He is on pace to score 64 points, and currently leads your team in scoring. If there’s one player who will fetch you a hefty return, it’s Tomas Kaberle.

You’ve plainly stated that you won’t ask Kaberle to waive his no trade clause, because as you say, “he’s earned it.” Fair enough Brian, but should Kaberle’s agent express to you his client’s openness to a trade, surely the offers will pour in.

Numerous GMs would love to have Kaberle. Here’s what the offers might look like if Kaberle becomes willing to move before the March 3rd trade deadline.

To Anaheim: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Jake Gardiner, 1st Round Pick (Originally Philadelphia’s), 3rd Round Pick

To Boston: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Blake Wheeler, 2nd Round Pick (Originally Toronto’s), 3rd Round Pick

To Los Angeles: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Thomas Hickey, 1st Round Pick, 5th Round Pick

To New Jersey: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: David Clarkson, Dainius Zubrus, 1st Round Pick, 3rd Round Pick

To Vancouver: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Kevin Bieksa, Cory Schneider, 2nd Round Pick

To Chicago: Tomas Kaberle, Vesa Toskala
To Toronto: Cam Barker, Brent Sopel, Cristobal Huet, 1st Round Pick

To Buffalo: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: Drew Stafford, Zack Kassian, 1st Round Pick

To Washington: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto: John Carlson, Chris Bourque, 2nd Round Pick, 5th Round Pick

To New York Rangers: Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Stefanovich
To Toronto: Derek Stepan, 1st Round Pick, 3rd Round Pick, Wade Redden

To New York Islanders: Tomas Kaberle
To Toronto Maple Leafs: Calvin de Haan, Rhett Rakhshani, 1st Round Pick, 3rd Round Pick



Please feel free to tear these trades apart in the comments, or pitch your own Kaberle trade scenarios.

With the Leafs sitting comfortably out of the playoff picture and hope quickly dwindling, fans can take consolation in two future Leaf staples who took part in the World Juniors.

Nasty Nazem

With time ticking away in the third period of the gold medal game and Team Canada in need of two goals, coach Willie Desjardins marched out the two best players in junior hockey — Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle — anchored at centre by Leaf prospect Nazem Kadri. Canada tied the game and Kadri was on the ice for both goals, assisting on the second.

Kadri was initially slated to be the team’s fourth line centre, but that changed quickly when Willie Desjardins elected to bump him up in the lineup to play with Taylor Hall. Hall and Kadri clicked (what a tease eh Leaf fans?), impressing Desjardins to the point of promoting Kadri to the first powerplay unit. Nazem occupied the right side on the powerplay all tournament long and seemed to earn the trust of his coach as an offensive threat.

For those who watched Brayden Schenn and Nazem Kadri for the first time at this tournament, they were treated to a couple of highly skilled youngsters with vastly different skillsets. Schenn is a big-bodied playmaker who shows tremendous poise, protecting the puck seemingly at will with his strong frame. Kadri on the other hand is elusive and quick, relying on his speed and vision to set up teammates and create plays. Both players were critical pieces of the Canadian attack, but Kadri’s offensive ability made him stand out.

Will Nazem be an ideal linemate for Phil Kessel? He certainly possesses the talent that Matt Stajan lacks, and attracts defenders the way Marc Savard does. Kessel needs a linemate who can hold the puck and while he gets open, and who will also muck it up in the corners. Kadri doesn’t shy away from digging along the boards — something Kessel’s linemates absolutely must do to compensate for the sniper’s unwillingness to exhaust his energy digging for pucks.

The Three D’Amigos

Jerry D’Amigo had to be the surprise breakout player of the tournament. A 6th round pick in 2009, D’Amigo starred at this year’s World Juniors, scoring 12 points to finish tied for 3rd in scoring. Amazingly, D’Amigo is only 18 and should be back to lead Team USA next year. The left-winger scored the goal that put the Americans up 4-3 in the gold medal game, and it was D’Amigo who innocently fluttered the puck towards Jake Allen which resulted in the tournament’s most memorable blunder.

Hockeysfuture.com describes D’Amigo’s skillset as such:

” D’Amigo has offensive talent, but doesn’t have a well-rounded game to go with it. He’ll make bad passes and bad decisions in the same game as a well-executed manoeuvre around the net. “

This was written a year ago, so it’s reasonable to believe that D’Amigo’s solid performances at RPI (NCAA) and the World Juniors has improved his overall game and his projection as an NHL player. Though a successful pro career isn’t guaranteed based on success in the WJC — See this link for details — D’Amigo showed a balanced all-around game and contributed offensively at big moments. His 12 points placed him second in team scoring behind Derek Stepan, tied with Taylor Hall for third in tournament scoring.

As far as organizational competency goes in terms of scouting, the Detroit Red Wings have established a reputation for finding star players in later rounds. The Leafs on the other hand are known for their incompetence at the draft table, with Tomas Kaberle being one of the only well-known late round pickups in the modern era of the club. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk were 6th round picks taken in 1998 and 1999 respectively, and because of these two, people seem to assume that Ken Holland and his scouting staff find a gem in every draft. Aside from Jonathan Ericsson as the last overall pick in 2002, the Wings failed to find a late round gem in the last decade. Darren Helm was taken in the 5th round in 2005 and has yet to firmly establish himself as an NHL talent. Aside from Ericsson and Helm, there is not a single notable Red Wing draft beyond the 3rd round pick to speak of in the last decade. The Leafs haven’ done much better — Ian White being their only notable late round pick of the last 10 years — but there isn’t much difference between these two clubs and their performance in the draft since the year 2000.

This is why a Jerry D’Amigo can go a long way in building organizational depth and rejuvenating the Leafs’ reputation as a draft-savvy club. Top-10 picks are expected to make an impact at the pro level, as it appears Nazem Kadri will. However, landing a couple of late-round surprises every decade can propel a club to the top of the standings. Where would the Wings be today if not for Zetterberg and Datsyuk? They’d likely be near the league basement and without a 2008 Stanley Cup Championship to speak of. For a Leaf club that must rely heavily on late-round picks and free agent signings to bolster their skill level in the coming years, a couple of standout performances from players already in the system gives Leaf management some assurance that the cupboard is not as bare as many perceive it to be.

Now over 20 games into his Leaf career, Torontonians have enough of a sample size to properly judge Phil Kessel. Since his first game in which he peppered the goal with 10 shots, it was clear the kid had talent. It was also clear that he “just loves to play hackey.”

Phil has quickly become a fan favourite in T.O. — his number 81 replica jersey is frequently seen throughout the ACC, and the crowd lights up when he gets the puck in open ice.

Kessel does some incredible things offensively, and he’s convinced a great deal of Leaf fans that 5.4 million is not too high a price, nor were the two first-rounders that Brian Burke gave up to acquire him.

Having now been through the honeymoon stage, the flaws of a player become more noticeable as they reoccur. So for many who have observed Kessel as a Bruin and a Leaf, we present you with the shortcomings of the offensively dynamic baby bear lookalike that is Phil Kessel.

Powerplay Setback
Phil adds a presence on the powerplay as a threat to fire a laser from the left half-boards. However, Toronto’s powerplay was clicking before Phil arrived, largely because there was no single go-to player for penalty killers to target. The Leafs were moving the puck and improvising with the man advantage, with Tomas Kaberle securely manning the point as a reset option. Kessel slows down the pace of the powerplay by holding the puck too long, allowing penalty killers to get firmly set instead of using his teammates. Since his arrival, the powerplay seems to exist entirely on his side of the attacking zone, and with mostly poor results. Further to that, he has shown a propensity to cough up the puck on the PP by attempting to force passes to the opposite point, or shooting into a crowd.

Selfish With The Puck
Phil Kessel wants the puck, and that’s pretty obvious. This may arguably be one of his strongest traits, but at other times it holds his game back. You want your snipers to demand the puck and create scoring chances, but a great player should possess the awareness to occasionally dish the puck to get out of trouble. Perhaps his tendencies will change when the Leafs can give him a linemate of equal skill — perhaps Nazem Kadri will be that player — but nonetheless, he has the vision to create offense using his linemates.

Careless Clearing
It’s really nice to see a player clear the zone with a little zest. Phil Kessel tends not to do that. He has a habit of gingerly attempting to clear the puck and then turning the opposite way, trying to bolt up the ice for a breakout before the puck has been cleared. It’s not fair to call him lazy, but Kessel certainly appears to over-conserve his energy without the puck, only to burst forth when an offensive chance presents itself. It’s these offensive bursts that make him so exciting, but a more committed defensive effort must be shown if Kessel is ever to be considered a superstar.

It’s Gotta Be The Hard Way
Phil Kessel can do this but sometimes he fails to recognize that the safer play is often the better one. Rather than get the puck deep to create sustained offensive possession, Kessel tries too hard to make a play that isn’t available. For every successful deke under a defender’s stick, there will be multiple failed attempts.

Not a Digger
The line of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan and Phil Kessel has worked quite well for the Leafs, largely because of hard work on the part of Kessel’s linemates. Phil is an opportunist, with a keen sense of positioning himself into scoring areas. He doesn’t excel playing a cycle game though, and he will need a couple of hard-working players on his line at all times to do the grunt work required to manufacture scoring chances. One of the best Leaf diggers is the often-criticized Jason Blake, who Kessel could certainly learn a thing or two from about working hard along the wall.

Note: Phil Kessel is a dynamic offensive hockey player and these observations have been published in an attempt to balance out the lopsided local perspective of Toronto’s newest franchise player.

If you’d like to add additional Kessel pet peeves in the comments, please do so.

There were three Maple Leafs at the 2006 Winter Olympics. Tomas Kaberle for the Czechs, Bryan McCabe for the Canadians, and Mats Sundin for the Swedes. Kaberle was his smooth self, McCabe was embarrassingly out of place, and Captain Mats captured Gold.

Four years later, ten Leafs can realistically appear in the Olympic hockey tournament. That list of ten doesn’t include Vesa Toskala, Jonas Frogren and Carl Gunnarsson — three players with no realistic shot to play for their respective countries while technically being considered for the tournament.

Here’s a summary of the Leafs to look for in Vancouver:

NIKOLAI KULEMIN – Russia
Russian forwards are known more for their flash and puck skills than for defensive prowess. Kulemin is a tireless worker and aggressive defensive player who would fit nicely on a fourth line with Evgeni Artyukhin and perhaps Sergei Fedorov. The Russians could ice four scoring lines but they need some jam that Kulemin will provide.
Likelihood of making team: 40%

FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN – Canada
Based on his overall play this year, Beauchemin is a real long shot to make the stud Canadian squad. Steve Yzerman has the luxury of hand-picking his defensemen from an incredibly deep talent pool, meaning only the best of the best will suit up for Canada. However, Francois has played much better hockey of late, and he always asks Ron Wilson for the toughest defensive assignments. Considering Beauchemin’s vast playoff experience with Anaheim, he’ll be considered for the final spot on defense.
Likelihood of making team: 5%

TOMAS KABERLE – Czech Republic
The shifty defender will again team up with Pavel Kubina as the top pairing for the Czechs. The Czechs are another squad who should quietly contend for a medal. Their roster should include Hejduk, Elias, Jagr, Havlat, Krejci, Erat, Plekanec, Michalek, Hudler — plenty of skilled candidates to accept Kabby’s outlet passes.
Likelihood of making team: 100%

PHIL KESSEL – United States
Talk about a shoe-in, Kessel is guaranteed a spot in the top-6, competing with Patrick “double-dime” Kane for top line right-wing duties alongside Stastny and Parise. Watching what he’s been able to do with an average supporting cast in Toronto, he could be a nightmare for the Canadians in Group A.
Likelihood of making team: 100%

MIKE KOMISAREK – United States
In keeping with the top-4/bottom-2 defense principle of Brian Burke, his team will require a couple of sturdy defensive-defensemen to round out his back end. While Brooks Orpik might be a better pure shutdown defenseman, there’s a reason Brian Burke threw so much money at the Blonde Bomber on July 1st. Expect Komisarek to make the American squad.
Likelihood of making team: 70%

JASON BLAKE – United States
Blake wasn’t invited to camp, but his game perfectly fits the mold of an Olympic bottom-6 forward. He leads the Leafs in takeaways and can chip in on the scoresheet. Blake also wore an ‘A’ for team USA at the most recent World Hockey Championships. Burke and Wilson know him well enough, but they might take a pass on Blake in favour of a younger talent.
Likelihood of making team: 20%

JONAS GUSTAVSSON – Sweden
Okay, the Monster has a real distant chance of making the Swedish team, but stranger things have happened. Both Johan Holmqvist and Mikael Tellqvist have far more NHL experience than Gustavsson, giving them the edge to be chosen for third string duties. Gustavsson does have a decided edge in that he currently plays on North American ice versus NHL talent. Tellqvist and Holmqvist are playing overseas this year, so they will require an adjustment period to sharpen up for Vancouver.
Likelihood of making team: 20%

NIKLAS HAGMAN – Finland
Hagman has elevated his status as an offensive producer, scoring at a 35 goal pace, while attracting some interest around the league as a trade target. Hagman could potentially play on the first line with Mikko Koivu and Teemu Selanne. He will be a key component of the Finnish attack.
Likelihood of making team: 100%

MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI – Belarus
Grabovski is one of two bonafide National Hockey League talents who will play for his country, Andrei Kostitsyn being the other. As seen at the World Championships this past spring, Grabovski will see as much ice time as he can physically handle in hopes of keeping up with the other skilled nations.
Likelihood of making team: 200%

MIKHAIL STEFANOVICH – Belarus
A member of the Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL, Stefanovich is one of only a few Belarussians playing in North America. His 6′2” frame is a great asset, and his 49 goals in 56 games last year give you an indication of his offensive ability. He likely won’t receive prime ice time during the Olympics, but his chance for inclusion on the Belarussian squad is a development opportunity that he and Leaf management should be excited for.
Likelihood of making team: 15%

Brian Burke is bold, he’s decisive, and he just traded away Jiri Tlusty.

We don’t yet know Burke’s reasoning behind the deal, but we do know for certain that at some point in the next year we will see a Toronto newspaper headline that reads, “Trouble In Paradis”.

The same way he dealt Anton Stralman, Burke has shed Tlusty from the Leafs’ organization thanks at least in part to the left-winger’s non-physical style of play. Sure, you can play for Burke if you don’t hit hard or muck it up, but you’d better have the skill of Selanne, Kessel, or Kaberle if you want to be in that mix.

Tlusty was one of the best 20-year-old prospects in the AHL last year, scoring 66 points in 66 games and winning player-of-the-month honours in February, which included a 5-goal game. Now 21, he has been shipped in exchange for Philippe Paradis, who was drafted 27th overall this past June and will turn 19 in January.

From a Leafs perspective, the decision to deal Tlusty may be puzzling to some, but the former 13th overall pick hasn’t had a terrific season to date. His production is down in a year where a step forward was the logical expectation. While a point-per-game pace is acceptable at the American Hockey League level, a prospect of Tlusty’s class is expected to be better in call-up opportunities.

In 2007-08, Tlusty put up 16 points in 58 games in a respectable stint for the Leafs, but failed to record a goal in his 14-game audition in 2008-09. It was after those 14 games, that Tlusty was returned to the AHL and finished the season with solid numbers. He was given only a two-game audition this year, one in which all of the confidence that makes him so effective in the minor leagues was simply absent at the NHL level.

This trade makes sense from a Burke standpoint for a couple of reasons. First, the team’s organizational depth at centre is terrible. From the big club — who ice Stajan, Grabovski and Mitchell as their top three — all the way down to the prospects. Tlusty was drafted as a centre/left-winger but has since played the wing almost exclusively. Behind Nazem Kadri, there are centres Tyler Bozak and question mark prospect Chris DiDomenico, neither of whom are safe bets to be productive NHLers.

Paradis is described as a power forward with size, a style that is opposite and complimentary to Kadri’s game, which is driven by pure finesse and playmaking imagination. Paradis has an offensive upside but his numbers in the QMJHL aren’t at all impressive. An optimist might view this trade as the Leafs picking up a second 2009 first round pick, strengthening their cupboard, while becoming bigger and more physical up the middle. The pessimist’s perspective would point to Tlusty as a still-young prospect who has plenty of development ahead of him, and who has produced as a pro.

As always, the trade shouldn’t be judged until both Paradis and Tlusty get opportunities with their new NHL teams. Tlusty might be falling into the perfect situation in Carolina, a team that could potentially have a 1-2 centre ice tandem of Eric Staal and Taylor Hall next year. Anyone who slides in alongside those two has a greater chance to produce.

Tlusty had one of the brighter upsides of Leaf prospects, but he was certainly not the most imaginative player. He rarely moved laterally with the puck, making him often predictable on rushes. A hard wrist shot and good passer, but he lacked the imagination of a top line forward.

Brian Burke has not made this move without much consideration, as both he and Ron Wilson have had the time and opportunity to observe the now former Maple Leaf. If Tlusty would have shown an improvement on the scoresheet this year, Burke may have kept him around. Brian Burke loves skilled players, and he also appreciates a player with a good work ethic. Tlusty is skilled, but not skilled enough, and his failure to make strides this year gave Burke the indication that Tlusty’s fit was better elsewhere.

***Update*** Here are Brian Burke’s thoughts on Philippe Paradis, as stated during intermission vs. Columbus:

“This young man that we’ve picked up is a hard-nosed power forward, kind of a prototypical power forward. He’s got size. He plays centre and wing. He goes to the net hard. He hits everything he can catch, and that’s because his foot speed’s good. He’s got proper levels of truculence to be a Leaf.”

If Brian Burke were a witness to any of the Maple Leafs’ 07-08 season, in all of its misery, he would have noted that Jason Blake never found his offensive stride.

Blake was brought in to provide some scoring punch to the top line wing position, but chemistry was never found alongside Mats Sundin. Rather, Sundin’s game was at its best with fellow giants Nik and Poni, as the trio used their size down low, generating chances by circling out off the cycle from behind the net. Blake finished the year with 15 goals, and became one of JFJ’s loudest free agent mistakes.

However, in 08-09, Blake found himself playing with Dominic Moore as his centreman, and the duo became the team’s unofficial top line. Moore, who was one of JFJ’s savvier waiver pickups, worked his way into a roster spot from training camp, and he ran with the opportunity. To put it simply, watching Blake and Moore on some nights was dazzling when they were at their best. Both are experts at winning races to loose pucks and squeezing through tight spaces with their size, and the combination was often the Leafs’ most dangerous. It was this chemistry that helped Blake find his way to a 25-goal rebound season, while Moore broke out with 41 points in 63 games.

Moore’s production turned out to be both good and bad for the Leafs. Not only did his presence help Jason Blake activate his offensive game, but Dominic himself was attracting interest around the league as the trade deadline approached. Burke reportedly wanted to retain Moore, but that possibility vanished in Burke’s mind when the Moore camp demanded 3 million per season for a contract extension. The Leafs’ GM made the right move by swapping Moore for a 2nd round pick from Buffalo, but Blake’s immediate drop in production — notably in the goal department — has confirmed one of Blake’s career trends.

Yes, as any Jason Blake historian would tell you, Alexei Yashin and Dominic Moore are the two players who Blake seems to thrive with. Yashin helped the left-winger score 40 goals with the Islanders, and it wasn’t until Moore and Blake became well-established linemates that Jason once again found his form.

Knowing this, Brian Burke should have found a way to retain Dominic Moore. Why didn’t Leafs Nation or anyone in the media make this an issue over the offseason? Simple. Ron Wilson promised a younger team, mentioning ‘5 or 6 rookies’ would suit up for the Leafs. To fans, this meant “aging” talents such as Moore and Antropov would be cast aside for prospects such as Tyler Bozak and Nazem Kadri. But look at this year’s Leaf lineup and realize that the most impactful rookie performer thus far has been Carl Gunnarsson. Mitchell, Stajan, and Grabovski are the top three centres, and Moore outplayed all three last year. If fans knew who Burke and Wilson were planning to ice at centre this year, there would have been a lot more support to bring back Moore.

You can’t fully blame Burke, as Moore’s contract demands simply didn’t make sense for what he had produced at the pro level. 41 points in 63 games was a good pace, but it was Moore’s first productive year. Holding his contract demands too high over the entire summer backfired on the 29-year-old Harvard grad, who settled for a 1-year, 1.1 million dollar contract with the Panthers.

The Leafs missed out on keeping Blake and Moore together after last season, but an attempt should at least be made to make a swap with the Panthers for Moore, who has only 4 points in 14 games. With Moore and Blake back together, the Leafs would have three lines capable of scoring, centred around the combos of Kessel with Ponikarovsky, Grabovski with Hagman, and Blake with Moore.

Jason Blake’s contract is inflated and immovable. If any team showed interest in taking Blake’s contract, he would be out the door immediately to make way for more consistent and manageable talent. With Moore by his side, the remaining two years on Blake’s contract would be far more tolerable.

Here’s a brief update of some notable Leaf prospects:

A Kadr-eam Come True?

Leaf fans should really be keeping an eye on Nazem Kadri, considering he is the franchise’s only non-professional first round pick developing anywhere in junior hockey. It’s been repeated by various Toronto hockey media outlets that Nazem “isn’t exactly lighting it up” with the London Knights, but as of late the gifted centre has in fact accelerated his scoring pace.

In 12 October games, Nazem recorded 12 points, while so far in 8 November games he’s potted 10 points. It doesn’t seem like a tremendous difference, but when you compare his points-per-game average in October vs. in November, his October totals over a full 68-game season would equate to 68 points, while the November pace would equate to 85 points over an entire campaign. He recently enjoyed a three assist night with Brian Burke in attendance.

Kadri has also taken over the team scoring lead for the first time this season. This isn’t a pleasant surprise, but more of an “it’s about time” milestone for number 91. The expectations surrounding him are high for a number of reasons, two of the biggest being the 100-point bar Ron Wilson set for Nazem in a pre-season interview, and the simple fact of belonging to an organization with a hungry fan-base, and the perceived need for prospects to step in and contribute as soon as possible.

Marlies Posting Some Numbers

After a short stretch with few standout offensive performances, the kids were scoring again as the Marlies thumped the Lake Erie Monsters 7-1 on Friday night. Most notable was Christian Hanson’s hat trick plus an assist, while Bozak and Tlusty had 3 helpers each, and Stalberg chipped in with a goal and an assist. Saturday night’s affair was a different story, as the Marlies returned home to host the Griffins and fell 6-3. Viktor Stalberg had 2 assists while Alex Foster potted a pair of goals.

Christian Hanson is now tied for second in AHL rookie scoring with 17 points in 17 games, while also leading the Marlies in points. Jiri Tlusty meanwhile has fallen below a point-per-game, with 13 points in 15 games. Perhaps his brief promotion to the Leafs has affected his motivation, as the big league stint only lasted two games, in which Jiri failed to get his name on the scoresheet. After scoring 66 points in 66 games last year, Tlusty should be aiming to better a point-per-game pace if he intends on elevating his status within the organization.

Needle In a Hayes Stack

Jimmy Hayes is developing nicely as a member of the Boston College Eagles in his sophomore year. Hayes, the 60th overall pick in 2008, has notched 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points in 10 games thus far. Last year he played in 36 of 37 games for the Eagles, recording 13 points. He is already just four points behind equaling last year’s output, and is actually on pace to score 33 points — an impressive 20-point improvement from a year ago. Hayes towers at 6′5”, and will continue to fill out his 210 pound frame. He is speedy for a big man and has good hands around the net. This kid could turn into the prototypical Brian Burke winger. Hayes has pioneered once-unknown techniques for being awkward while interviewed.

Maybe it’s time to start campaigning for Luke Schenn to be an All-Star this year.

An AHL All-Star.

As Schenn supporters react hastily to this suggestion, they should understand that there is a strong case to be made for Schenn to be demoted, as his season hasn’t quite been brilliant thus far. Though, it has as much to do with the potential benefit of a minor league stint as much as Luke’s play through 14 games.

Before the season, Burke and Wilson cited Schenn as their most consistent first-passer of a year ago, and noted that the expectations for Luke would rise in his second full NHL campaign.

Then take a look at last week’s contests, in which Schenn was glued to the bench for most third periods, as Wilson sat the sophomore in favour of the club’s offensive-minded blueliners, Kaberle, Beauchemin, and White. Luke would then be dispensed in penalty kill scenarios, only to return to the bench for the remaining even-strength and powerplay shifts. For a player who was widely considered one of the club’s two best defenseman last year, it appears Schenn has perhaps fallen out of favour with Wilson.

When Michael Komisarek was brought in on July 1st, the Leafs acquired a player who is essentially an advanced version of Schenn, minus the offensive upside. Komisarek makes clean, short passes exiting his zone, and generally tends to be defensively astute. Both right-handed shots, both hulking men, though Komisarek has cemented his game, while Schenn only began to make a name for himself last year.

Komisarek wasn’t thought of as a replacement for Schenn, but rather an upgrade to the right-defense position. Though the mustached wonder, Ian White, has once again played his way into a top-4 role, leaving Schenn with greatly reduced minutes, playing alongside Garnet Exelby the last while, and more recently Jeff Finger.

Damien Cox was an outspoken proponent of returning Schenn to Kelowna last year, citing that junior hockey would provide further opportunity to develop Luke’s offensive game. Cox then warned that Schenn could become a Luke Richardson-type player, who does nothing more than contribute with a sound defensive presence.

Of course, it would be a stretch to suddenly believe that Schenn’s development will taper off in the near future, as he has just turned 20, and is competing in the NHL at an uncommonly young age. Mind you, that’s not to say his development can’t still be optimized if he is handled correctly by the organization.

Which brings us to the AHL argument.

Of the top-20 highest scoring defenseman in 08-09, 13 of them spent time in the AHL before becoming productive NHLers. At 20 years old, it would be perfectly acceptable for Luke to join the Marlies. Consider the team’s current top 3 defenders — Juraj Mikus, Carl Gunnarsson, and Phil Oreskovic, who are all older than Schenn.

If Luke Schenn were a Marlie, Dallas Eakins would play the daylights out of him, and in all situations. His role would resemble that of his stint with the Kelowna Rockets, only the competition would be stronger, faster, and more closely resemble NHL competition.

Schenn has enjoyed some solid minutes for the Leafs this year, but he isn’t playing enough, or participating offensively as his talent will allow him. They called him “The Human Eraser” throughout his junior career, but Schenn was regarded by scouts just as much for his first-rate ability to pass the puck as his penchant for laying out opponents.

As a benefit to the Leafs, making room for Jeff Finger might (emphasis on the might) allow Brian Burke the leverage to trade the overpriced blueliner to a desperate team later in the year. Finger was good statistically last year, and maybe there’s a team out there willing to swap for him.

When you consider how many Schenn jerseys have been sold, and how often you see his face plastered just about everywhere in Toronto on Leaf advertisements, it seems unlikely that Schenn will play at the Ricoh.

Though a stint with the Marlies is far from being a crazy suggestion, really, because better defensemen than Luke have taken more indirect paths to NHL stardom, many of them cutting their teeth in the AHL on the way.

With no first round picks currently in hand for the next two years, the club’s most recent first round assets, Kadri and Schenn, must be well-managed in order to maximize their full potential as prospects. It seems the right call was made with Kadri, who is beginning to accelerate his production with the London Knights.

For Luke Schenn, given the chance to play 25+ minutes while embracing his creativity might be the difference between a career player who puts up 30 points a year as opposed to 15. Playing 10-15 minutes a night with Garnet Exelby is perhaps a misuse of one of the brightest young talents in the Maple Leafs organization.

The following are selected snippets from an imaginary staged debate between a glass-half-full Leafs Optimist, and a sour-hearted “this ship is sinking/sunken” Leafs Pessimist…

Optimist says: Ron Wilson will get the troops out of this, he’s an old pro, and he’s faced more adversity than this. He’s won 552 games in the NHL. Do you really believe this slow start fazes him?

Pessimist says: He’s already looking desperate, and we’re still in October. The man is running out of tricks. The bag skate, the veteran healthy scratches, a jovial game of dodgeball, 3-on-3 — What’s next, road hockey? You can’t gimmick your way out of this crisis. With a roster like this, I don’t think anyone can right the ship.

Optimist says: It’s funny you mention the quality of the roster, because that was my next point. These guys are underperforming, and everybody knows it. Most of this team can do a lot better with the tools they possess, and they will. It’s only a matter of time. You can’t hold down an entire roster’s worth of talent all year. This team will win some lobsided games, believe me. Hagman, Poni, Blake, maybe Stempniak, and definitely Kessel are good for 20-goal seasons.

Pessimist says: Blake? 20 goals? Maybe he can convince Burke to trade a pick for Dominic Moore! Remember Dominic Moore? He was the best forward on the roster last year, and nobody worked harder. Why did Burke let him walk when he single-handedly got one of your most onerous contracts to seem not-so-onerous? But forget trading a pick, because Double-B has gone all JFJ on us and said, “to hell with draft picks!” And don’t get me started on Phil Kessel.

Optimist says: It’s funny that folks like yourself believe that because of the Kessel trade, picks have become meaningless to the organization. Despite giving away two firsts, the emphasis on developing internally in this organization is the new way of thinking. Viktor Stalberg, Nikolai Kulemin, John Mitchell, Carl Gunnarsson, Nazem Kadri, Jiri Tlusty. Need me to go on? These are homegrown players.

Pessimist says: Those players are all terrible.

Optimist says: Jiri Tlusty is tearing up the AHL with 9 points in 7 games, and Viktor Stalberg is a player who Bob Mckenzie said could contend for the Calder Trophy this year. Nazem Kadri is terrible? Remember that shootout move?

Pessimist says: Wait, Tlusty is tearing, as in ripping? Or tearing as in crying, because whenever he gets called up he goes on unbelievable cold streaks and sulks his way back to the Marlies. Oh, I forgot about Viktor “Always Drives Down the Left Wing Predictably” Stalberg. And isn’t Nazem Kadri 7th on the London Knights in scoring right now? Oh, but Ron Wilson said he’d get 100 points this year. Oh, that makes sense.

Optimist says: You also forget that Burke will find a way to get some picks back before the year is done.

Pessimist says: Yeah, Burke could get some picks back, but the only way to get picks is to give up roster players. Any roster players worth a pick would hurt the team if they were traded. Which would make our (Boston’s) first-rounder next year more valuable. See the dilemma??

Optimist says: I disagree. The hope is for a youngster or two to step up and grab a roster spot before the year is done. Bozak, Tlusty, Hanson (who had 3 points the other night) could fit that description. Then, you trade a Grabbo, a Hagman, or even a Stempniak for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. If the Leafs can grab two 2nds for 2010, the draft will be a relative success.

Pessimist says: 0-6-1.

Optimist says: Look at the teams we’ve played, all near the top of the league record-wise.

Pessimist says: Well, it’s unfortunate we can’t contend against winning teams, because in the NHL, 16 out of 30 teams make the playoffs. More than half. So enjoy splitting the season series with the 14-non playoffs clubs, and perhaps having an edge of maybe 5 of them.

Optimist says: Well you just wait until we get Phil Kessel back. 12th in the league in goals last year playing only 70 games. Former 5th overall pick, the kid is nasty.

Pessimist says: Oh really? wait until a socially-awkward 22-year-old with an illness and injury history is put under a microscope in hockey-mad Toronto? Wait until the media picks on him, he’ll be wishing he could go back to Boston/Wisconsin/Anywhere-but-here, as fast as he signed his 5.4 million dollar contract with Burkie. Plus, he looks like a bear cub. Everyone knows that players who look like their team’s animal are more prone to success. Example, Evgeni Malkin looks like an emperor penguin, Ovechkin looks like a bald eagle, and Shane Doan looks like a coyote.

Optimist says: That was a really poor point to finish this debate on.

Pessimist says: Sorry…